Friday, October 05, 2007

Not Folding Yet

Saracens Cap
Boiled? Roast? Fried?
Ok, I'm not quite throwing in the towel just yet, but as I'm out of humble pie I think it might be time to start marinading a hat.

My increasing confidence that Brown would not call an autumn election has taken a bit of a beating with the news that key Commons statements such as the Comprehensive Spending Review and the pre-budget review have been brought forward. Of all the positive signals suggesting an autumn election, this for me has been the most convincing especially in the context of the situation Gordon Brown now finds himself in.

About the only comfort I can find in the news is that if now Brown doesn't call an election, he will look like a complete and utter lunatic. To have been seen to have been playing silly games with the Labour Party machinery, such as putting agencies on standby, and provisionally booking advertising space, isn't something that would be likely to score many plus points for the grim one. To have actually messed around with the functioning of Parliament on the pretext of an election that did not in the end take place would make him look either terminally indecisive, or to be playing the most ridiculous of games with no outcome reflecting well on Brown.

The other, possibly related, worrying sign that I may be facing a meal of baseball cap au vin, came from a rare look at the BetFair market on the election date. Yesterday there was clear movement away from the autumn 2007, in favour of other options, especially my favourite of spring 2009. This morning, with no other relevant news coming through, other than positive media reaction to the opinion poll movement, the money went back on the snap election option, well before the announcement of the Commons rescheduling.

Perhaps they've worked out that those likely to be disenfranchised by the issues with the registration process, compounded by the postal dispute are more likely to be Tory voters?

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